NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 17, 2011

Ryan Newman

Winner

301

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Ryan Newman won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 17, 2011, leading 119 of 301 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Ryan Newman

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Ryan Newman		301	—	Running	119	48
2	2	—	Tony Stewart		301	—	Running	48	43
3	14	+11	Denny Hamlin		301	—	Running	—	41
4	16	+12	Joey Logano		301	—	Running	5	41
5	28	+23	Jimmie Johnson		301	—	Running	19	40
6	10	+4	Kasey Kahne		301	—	Running	5	39
7	23	+16	Bobby Labonte		301	—	Running	—	37
8	13	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		301	—	Running	—	36
9	22	+13	Marcos Ambrose		301	—	Running	4	36
10	4	-6	Kurt Busch	Dodge	301	—	Running	66	35
11	7	-4	Jeff Gordon		301	—	Running	19	34
12	17	+5	A.J. Allmendinger		301	—	Running	—	32
13	15	+2	Carl Edwards		301	—	Running	1	32
14	26	+12	David Ragan		301	—	Running	—	30
15	27	+12	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		301	—	Running	—	29
16	6	-10	Jeff Burton		301	—	Running	—	28
17	12	-5	Clint Bowyer		301	—	Running	3	28
18	20	+2	Greg Biffle		301	—	Running	1	27
19	3	-16	David Reutimann		301	—	Running	—	25
20	30	+10	Matt Kenseth		301	—	Running	—	24
21	18	-3	Kevin Harvick		301	—	Running	—	23
22	24	+2	Mark Martin		301	—	Running	3	23
23	38	+15	J.J. Yeley		301	—	Running	—	21
24	9	-15	Paul Menard		301	—	Running	—	20
25	34	+9	David Gilliland		301	—	Running	—	19
26	32	+6	Landon Cassill		300	—	Running	—	0
27	42	+15	Scott Wimmer	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	0
28	43	+15	Andy Lally		300	—	Running	2	17
29	37	+8	Dave Blaney		300	—	Running	—	15
30	8	-22	Juan Pablo Montoya		300	—	Running	—	14
31	25	-6	Jamie McMurray		300	—	Running	6	14
32	41	+9	Mike Bliss		299	—	Running	—	0
33	11	-22	Regan Smith		298	—	Running	—	11
34	21	-13	Brian Vickers		283	—	Running	—	10
35	5	-30	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	257	—	Running	—	9
36	19	-17	Kyle Busch		224	—	DNF	—	8
37	29	-8	David Stremme		159	—	DNF	—	0
38	31	-7	Casey Mears		83	—	DNF	—	6
39	40	+1	Erik Darnell		72	—	DNF	—	0
40	33	-7	Michael McDowell		46	—	DNF	—	4
41	35	-6	Joe Nemechek		37	—	DNF	—	0
42	39	-3	Mike Skinner		17	—	DNF	—	0
43	36	-7	Jeff Green		11	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	6.8	3	+3.8	High Confidence
4	Joey Logano	12.1	4	+8.1	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	5	+12.7	Moderate
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	8	+5.8	Coinflip
12	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	12	+6.3	Moderate
23	J.J. Yeley	28.1	23	+5.1	High Confidence
35	Brad Keselowski	12.0	35	-23.0	Coinflip
36	Kyle Busch	15.6	36	-20.4	Coinflip
38	Casey Mears	18.0	38	-20.0	Moderate
40	Michael McDowell	15.0	40	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Ryan Newman: has 22 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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