Brickyard 400

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 28, 2013

Ryan Newman

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Ryan Newman won the 2013 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 28, 2013, leading 45 of 160 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Ryan Newman

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Ryan Newman	160	—	Running	45	47
2	2	—	Jimmie Johnson	160	—	Running	73	44
3	7	+4	Kasey Kahne	160	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Tony Stewart	160	—	Running	—	40
5	13	+8	Matt Kenseth	160	—	Running	—	39
6	15	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	38
7	9	+2	Jeff Gordon	160	—	Running	11	38
8	11	+3	Joey Logano	160	—	Running	11	37
9	8	-1	Juan Pablo Montoya	160	—	Running	1	36
10	19	+9	Kyle Busch	160	—	Running	—	34
11	38	+27	Martin Truex, Jr.	160	—	Running	—	33
12	23	+11	Paul Menard	160	—	Running	1	33
13	3	-10	Carl Edwards	160	—	Running	1	32
14	6	-8	Kurt Busch	160	—	Running	—	30
15	18	+3	Jamie McMurray	160	—	Running	5	30
16	10	-6	Marcos Ambrose	160	—	Running	—	28
17	21	+4	Aric Almirola	160	—	Running	—	27
18	4	-14	Denny Hamlin	160	—	Running	4	27
19	24	+5	Kevin Harvick	160	—	Running	2	26
20	17	-3	Clint Bowyer	160	—	Running	1	25
21	12	-9	Brad Keselowski	160	—	Running	5	24
22	14	-8	A.J. Allmendinger	160	—	Running	—	22
23	26	+3	Mark Martin	160	—	Running	—	21
24	27	+3	Greg Biffle	159	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	159	—	Running	—	19
26	20	-6	Austin Dillon	159	—	Running	—	0
27	30	+3	Casey Mears	159	—	Running	—	17
28	28	—	Trevor Bayne	159	—	Running	—	0
29	31	+2	David Reutimann	158	—	Running	—	15
30	33	+3	Danica Patrick	158	—	Running	—	14
31	22	-9	Travis Kvapil	158	—	Running	—	13
32	35	+3	Michael McDowell	157	—	Running	—	12
33	29	-4	Landon Cassill	157	—	Running	—	0
34	36	+2	David Ragan	157	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	David Gilliland	157	—	Running	—	9
36	34	-2	Bobby Labonte	157	—	Running	—	8
37	41	+4	Dave Blaney	156	—	Running	—	7
38	32	-6	Josh Wise	156	—	Running	—	0
39	39	—	J.J. Yeley	156	—	Running	—	5
40	37	-3	David Stremme	151	—	Running	—	4
41	40	-1	Joe Nemechek	146	—	Running	—	0
42	43	+1	Timmy Hill	121	—	DNF	—	2
43	16	-27	Jeff Burton	110	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
8	Joey Logano	12.7	8	+4.7	Coinflip
10	Kyle Busch	16.9	10	+6.9	Coinflip
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	11	+4.4	Coinflip
18	Denny Hamlin	8.2	18	-9.8	High Confidence
21	Brad Keselowski	11.8	21	-9.2	Coinflip
22	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	22	-3.7	Moderate
25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	25	-2.8	High Confidence
26	Austin Dillon	18.3	26	-7.7	Moderate
27	Casey Mears	17.0	27	-10.0	Coinflip
32	Michael McDowell	15.4	32	-16.6	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.6	39	-10.4	High Confidence
42	Timmy Hill	23.9	42	-18.1	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Ryan Newman: has 18 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P18 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 16 starts, 14.5 avg finish.

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