NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago

Chicagoland Speedway — September 15, 2013

Matt Kenseth

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Chicago at Chicagoland Speedway on September 15, 2013, leading 89 of 267 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 16 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Track

Chicagoland Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

16 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	89	48
2	12	+10	Kyle Busch	267	—	Running	67	43
3	17	+14	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	2	42
4	16	+12	Kurt Busch	267	—	Running	—	40
5	9	+4	Jimmie Johnson	267	—	Running	40	40
6	6	—	Jeff Gordon	267	—	Running	22	1289
7	2	-5	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	2	38
8	5	-3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	267	—	Running	—	36
9	24	+15	Clint Bowyer	267	—	Running	—	35
10	20	+10	Ryan Newman	267	—	Running	1	35
11	8	-3	Carl Edwards	267	—	Running	1	34
12	4	-8	Kasey Kahne	267	—	Running	—	32
13	15	+2	Aric Almirola	267	—	Running	1	32
14	21	+7	Jeff Burton	267	—	Running	—	30
15	26	+11	Marcos Ambrose	267	—	Running	—	29
16	7	-9	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	2	29
17	29	+12	Mark Martin	267	—	Running	—	27
18	14	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	—	26
19	27	+8	Jamie McMurray	267	—	Running	2	26
20	23	+3	Danica Patrick	267	—	Running	—	24
21	13	-8	A.J. Allmendinger	267	—	Running	—	23
22	11	-11	Paul Menard	267	—	Running	—	22
23	41	+18	Dave Blaney	267	—	Running	—	21
24	37	+13	Travis Kvapil	266	—	Running	—	20
25	30	+5	J.J. Yeley	266	—	Running	2	20
26	19	-7	David Ragan	266	—	Running	1	19
27	36	+9	Justin Allgaier	266	—	Running	—	0
28	35	+7	David Gilliland	266	—	Running	—	16
29	32	+3	Landon Cassill	266	—	Running	1	0
30	31	+1	Casey Mears	266	—	Running	—	14
31	42	+11	Joe Nemechek	266	—	Running	—	0
32	3	-29	Juan Pablo Montoya	261	—	Running	—	12
33	22	-11	Denny Hamlin	247	—	Running	—	11
34	39	+5	Timmy Hill	225	—	DNF	—	10
35	18	-17	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	224	—	DNF	2	10
36	33	-3	David Reutimann	195	—	DNF	—	8
37	1	-36	Joey Logano	175	—	DNF	32	8
38	25	-13	Brian Vickers	161	—	DNF	—	0
39	28	-11	Cole Whitt	151	—	DNF	—	0
40	43	+3	Tony Raines	87	—	DNF	—	0
41	34	-7	Josh Wise	84	—	DNF	—	0
42	40	-2	Reed Sorenson	68	—	DNF	—	0
43	38	-5	Michael McDowell	29	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	16.9	2	+14.9	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	5	+14.9	Moderate
7	Brad Keselowski	11.9	7	+4.9	Coinflip
8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.2	8	+14.2	High Confidence
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	18	-2.6	Coinflip
21	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	21	-2.7	Moderate
25	J.J. Yeley	28.2	25	+3.2	High Confidence
27	Justin Allgaier	18.3	27	-8.7	Moderate
30	Casey Mears	17.1	30	-12.9	Coinflip
33	Denny Hamlin	8.2	33	-24.8	High Confidence
34	Timmy Hill	23.9	34	-10.1	High Confidence
37	Joey Logano	12.7	37	-24.3	Coinflip
43	Michael McDowell	16.2	43	-26.8	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 26 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Chicagoland Speedway with a 14.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P33 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 32 starts, 9.5 avg finish.

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