NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 22, 2013

Matt Kenseth

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 22, 2013, leading 106 of 300 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Matt Kenseth	300	—	Running	106	48
2	12	+10	Kyle Busch	300	—	Running	—	42
3	10	+7	Greg Biffle	300	—	Running	—	41
4	11	+7	Jimmie Johnson	300	—	Running	1	41
5	23	+18	Jamie McMurray	300	—	Running	—	39
6	17	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	300	—	Running	17	39
7	29	+22	Brian Vickers	300	—	Running	—	0
8	25	+17	Jeff Burton	300	—	Running	—	36
9	26	+17	Carl Edwards	300	—	Running	—	35
10	5	-5	Martin Truex, Jr.	300	—	Running	98	35
11	20	+9	Brad Keselowski	300	—	Running	2	34
12	14	+2	Denny Hamlin	300	—	Running	—	32
13	4	-9	Kurt Busch	300	—	Running	—	31
14	6	-8	Joey Logano	300	—	Running	1	31
15	3	-12	Jeff Gordon	300	—	Running	36	30
16	1	-15	Ryan Newman	300	—	Running	2	29
17	16	-1	Clint Bowyer	300	—	Running	5	28
18	22	+4	Marcos Ambrose	300	—	Running	—	26
19	15	-4	Juan Pablo Montoya	300	—	Running	—	25
20	8	-12	Kevin Harvick	300	—	Running	—	24
21	13	-8	Aric Almirola	300	—	Running	—	23
22	7	-15	Paul Menard	300	—	Running	—	22
23	18	-5	Mark Martin	300	—	Running	—	21
24	31	+7	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	300	—	Running	—	20
25	34	+9	Casey Mears	300	—	Running	—	19
26	35	+9	David Reutimann	300	—	Running	—	18
27	21	-6	Danica Patrick	300	—	Running	—	17
28	30	+2	Travis Kvapil	300	—	Running	—	16
29	19	-10	David Ragan	299	—	Running	—	15
30	27	-3	Michael McDowell	297	—	Running	—	14
31	38	+7	Dave Blaney	297	—	Running	—	13
32	43	+11	Josh Wise	297	—	Running	—	0
33	37	+4	J.J. Yeley	296	—	Running	1	12
34	32	-2	Landon Cassill	296	—	Running	—	0
35	36	+1	Joe Nemechek	296	—	Running	—	0
36	42	+6	Timmy Hill	293	—	Running	—	8
37	2	-35	Kasey Kahne	278	—	Running	31	8
38	33	-5	Kevin Swindell	244	—	DNF	—	0
39	24	-15	David Gilliland	239	—	DNF	—	5
40	28	-12	Bobby Labonte	161	—	DNF	—	4
41	39	-2	Tony Raines	128	—	DNF	—	0
42	41	-1	Johnny Sauter	103	—	DNF	—	0
43	40	-3	Scott Riggs	92	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	14.0	2	+12.0	Coinflip
4	Jimmie Johnson	18.3	4	+14.3	Moderate
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	10	+4.0	Coinflip
11	Brad Keselowski	12.0	11	+1.0	Coinflip
12	Denny Hamlin	8.6	12	-3.4	Moderate
14	Joey Logano	10.8	14	-3.2	Coinflip
16	Ryan Newman	23.1	16	+7.1	High Confidence
20	Kevin Harvick	10.3	20	-9.7	Moderate
21	Aric Almirola	15.0	21	-6.0	Coinflip
24	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.0	24	-3.0	High Confidence
25	Casey Mears	17.7	25	-7.3	Moderate
30	Michael McDowell	14.0	30	-16.0	Coinflip
33	J.J. Yeley	27.3	33	-5.7	High Confidence
36	Timmy Hill	22.1	36	-13.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 30 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 24 starts, 10.8 avg finish.

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