NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 26, 2015

Kyle Busch

Winner

164

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT THE BRICKYARD at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 26, 2015, leading 19 of 164 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Kyle Busch	164	—	Running	19	47
2	2	—	Joey Logano	164	—	Running	28	43
3	6	+3	Kevin Harvick	164	—	Running	75	43
4	13	+9	Martin Truex, Jr.	164	—	Running	—	40
5	17	+12	Denny Hamlin	164	—	Running	—	39
6	7	+1	Clint Bowyer	164	—	Running	—	38
7	23	+16	Matt Kenseth	164	—	Running	—	37
8	14	+6	Kurt Busch	164	—	Running	—	36
9	5	-4	Kyle Larson	164	—	Running	—	35
10	31	+21	Brad Keselowski	164	—	Running	17	35
11	43	+32	Ryan Newman	164	—	Running	—	33
12	30	+18	Ryan Blaney	164	—	Running	—	0
13	1	-12	Carl Edwards	164	—	Running	20	32
14	11	-3	Paul Menard	164	—	Running	—	30
15	12	-3	Jimmie Johnson	164	—	Running	—	29
16	10	-6	Jamie McMurray	164	—	Running	—	28
17	18	+1	Sam Hornish Jr.	164	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	Chase Elliott	164	—	Running	—	0
19	20	+1	Greg Biffle	164	—	Running	—	25
20	16	-4	Casey Mears	164	—	Running	—	24
21	3	-18	David Ragan	164	—	Running	5	24
22	8	-14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	164	—	Running	—	22
23	26	+3	A.J. Allmendinger	164	—	Running	—	21
24	27	+3	Kasey Kahne	164	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Austin Dillon	164	—	Running	—	19
26	24	-2	Landon Cassill	164	—	Running	—	0
27	15	-12	Danica Patrick	164	—	Running	—	17
28	4	-24	Tony Stewart	164	—	Running	—	16
29	37	+8	David Gilliland	163	—	Running	—	15
30	34	+4	Michael Annett	162	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	Michael McDowell	162	—	Running	—	13
32	40	+8	Matt DiBenedetto	162	—	Running	—	12
33	41	+8	Cole Whitt	162	—	Running	—	11
34	39	+5	Brett Moffitt	162	—	Running	—	10
35	29	-6	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	161	—	Running	—	9
36	36	—	Brian Scott	161	—	Running	—	0
37	21	-16	Justin Allgaier	161	—	Running	—	7
38	22	-16	Aric Almirola	161	—	Running	—	6
39	38	-1	J.J. Yeley	160	—	Running	—	0
40	33	-7	Trevor Bayne	155	—	Running	—	4
41	42	+1	Timmy Hill	111	—	DNF	—	0
42	19	-23	Jeff Gordon	110	—	DNF	—	2
43	35	-8	Alex Bowman	78	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	17.0	1	+16.0	Coinflip
2	Joey Logano	14.7	2	+12.7	Coinflip
4	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	4	+11.4	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
9	Kyle Larson	12.7	9	+3.7	Coinflip
10	Brad Keselowski	11.2	10	+1.2	Moderate
12	Ryan Blaney	9.2	12	-2.8	High Confidence
15	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
18	Chase Elliott	7.8	18	-10.2	High Confidence
20	Casey Mears	16.9	20	-3.1	Coinflip
23	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	23	-4.7	Moderate
25	Austin Dillon	17.1	25	-7.9	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
35	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	35	-15.1	Moderate
37	Justin Allgaier	18.3	37	-18.7	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.8	39	-10.2	High Confidence
41	Timmy Hill	23.9	41	-17.1	High Confidence
43	Alex Bowman	13.5	43	-29.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 23 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 10.3 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish, finishing P18 on the day.

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