NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire Motor Speedway, July 19, 2015

Kyle Busch

Winner

301

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT NEW HAMPSHIRE at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 19, 2015, leading 96 of 301 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Kyle Busch	301	—	Running	96	47
2	10	+8	Brad Keselowski	301	—	Running	100	44
3	12	+9	Kevin Harvick	301	—	Running	59	42
4	2	-2	Joey Logano	301	—	Running	12	41
5	19	+14	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	301	—	Running	—	39
6	8	+2	Matt Kenseth	301	—	Running	—	38
7	1	-6	Carl Edwards	301	—	Running	19	38
8	24	+16	Austin Dillon	301	—	Running	—	36
9	23	+14	Jeff Gordon	301	—	Running	2	36
10	6	-4	Kurt Busch	301	—	Running	—	34
11	26	+15	Ryan Newman	301	—	Running	—	33
12	15	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	301	—	Running	—	32
13	22	+9	A.J. Allmendinger	301	—	Running	13	32
14	5	-9	Denny Hamlin	301	—	Running	—	30
15	29	+14	Aric Almirola	301	—	Running	—	29
16	21	+5	Casey Mears	301	—	Running	—	28
17	32	+15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	301	—	Running	—	27
18	3	-15	David Ragan	301	—	Running	—	26
19	9	-10	Kasey Kahne	301	—	Running	—	25
20	25	+5	Tony Stewart	301	—	Running	—	24
21	37	+16	David Gilliland	301	—	Running	—	23
22	7	-15	Jimmie Johnson	300	—	Running	—	22
23	16	-7	Ryan Blaney	300	—	Running	—	0
24	20	-4	Danica Patrick	300	—	Running	—	20
25	28	+3	Paul Menard	300	—	Running	—	19
26	11	-15	Jamie McMurray	300	—	Running	—	18
27	14	-13	Greg Biffle	299	—	Running	—	17
28	33	+5	Cole Whitt	299	—	Running	—	16
29	27	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	299	—	Running	—	15
30	13	-17	Landon Cassill	299	—	Running	—	0
31	17	-14	Kyle Larson	299	—	Running	—	13
32	31	-1	Trevor Bayne	299	—	Running	—	12
33	34	+1	Brett Moffitt	297	—	Running	—	11
34	18	-16	Clint Bowyer	297	—	Running	—	10
35	35	—	Matt DiBenedetto	296	—	Running	—	9
36	38	+2	Michael Annett	296	—	Running	—	8
37	41	+4	Eddie MacDonald	295	—	Running	—	7
38	43	+5	Timmy Hill	292	—	Running	—	0
39	42	+3	Derek White	290	—	Running	—	0
40	30	-10	Justin Allgaier	284	—	Running	—	4
41	36	-5	Jeb Burton	239	—	DNF	—	3
42	40	-2	Alex Bowman	230	—	DNF	—	2
43	39	-4	J.J. Yeley	202	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Brad Keselowski	13.8	2	+11.8	Coinflip
4	Joey Logano	10.3	4	+6.3	Moderate
8	Austin Dillon	17.7	8	+9.7	Coinflip
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	12	+2.0	Coinflip
13	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	13	+7.1	Moderate
14	Denny Hamlin	6.8	14	-7.2	High Confidence
16	Casey Mears	18.3	16	+2.3	Moderate
17	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.4	17	+3.4	High Confidence
22	Jimmie Johnson	18.0	22	-4.0	Moderate
23	Ryan Blaney	6.8	23	-16.2	High Confidence
31	Kyle Larson	10.3	31	-20.7	Moderate
38	Timmy Hill	23.1	38	-14.9	High Confidence
40	Justin Allgaier	18.0	40	-22.0	Coinflip
42	Alex Bowman	15.6	42	-26.4	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	27.3	43	-15.7	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 46 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 34 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 9.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 34 starts, 9.6 avg finish.

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