NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN
Michigan International Speedway — August 16, 2015
Matt Kenseth
Winner
200
Laps
43
Entries
8
Leaders
Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on August 16, 2015, leading 146 of 200 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, August 16, 2015
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Matt Kenseth |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 22 | +19 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 4 | — | Austin Dillon |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Carl Edwards |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 14 | +5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 9 | -1 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 11 | 6 | -5 | Kyle Busch |
| 12 | 24 | +12 | Paul Menard |
| 13 | 34 | +21 | Kyle Larson |
| 14 | 30 | +16 | Aric Almirola |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Kasey Kahne |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Jeff Gordon |
| 18 | 13 | -5 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Kurt Busch |
| 21 | 5 | -16 | Tony Stewart |
| 22 | 25 | +3 | Trevor Bayne |
| 23 | 20 | -3 | Greg Biffle |
| 24 | 19 | -5 | Ryan Blaney |
| 25 | 23 | -2 | Danica Patrick |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | Cole Whitt |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Justin Allgaier |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Alex Bowman |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | David Gilliland |
| 33 | 29 | -4 | Jeb Burton |
| 34 | 38 | +4 | Brett Moffitt |
| 35 | 39 | +4 | Michael Annett |
| 36 | 31 | -5 | Landon Cassill |
| 37 | 41 | +4 | Josh Wise |
| 38 | 37 | -1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 8 | -31 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 40 | 42 | +2 | Travis Kvapil |
| 41 | 12 | -29 | Clint Bowyer |
| 42 | 40 | -2 | Casey Mears |
| 43 | 43 | — | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 4 | +13.1 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 7 | +7.7 |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 9 | +2.2 |
| 11 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 11 | +6.0 |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 13 | -0.3 |
| 24 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 26 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 26 | -6.1 |
| 28 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 28 | -9.7 |
| 29 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 29 | -10.7 |
| 31 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 31 | -17.5 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
| 39 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 39 | -19.1 |
| 42 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 42 | -25.1 |
| 43 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 43 | -19.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Kenseth: has 47 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 30 starts, 16.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 16, 2015.