NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT WATKINS GLEN

Watkins Glen International — August 9, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT WATKINS GLEN at Watkins Glen International on August 9, 2015, leading 1 of 90 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	16	+15	Joey Logano	90	—	Running	1	47
2	8	+6	Kyle Busch	90	—	Running	3	43
3	4	+1	Kevin Harvick	90	—	Running	29	43
4	26	+22	Matt Kenseth	90	—	Running	2	41
5	14	+9	Kurt Busch	90	—	Running	—	39
6	18	+12	Clint Bowyer	90	—	Running	—	38
7	11	+4	Brad Keselowski	90	—	Running	27	38
8	15	+7	Carl Edwards	90	—	Running	—	36
9	24	+15	Sam Hornish Jr.	90	—	Running	—	35
10	9	-1	Jimmie Johnson	90	—	Running	—	34
11	7	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	90	—	Running	—	33
12	6	-6	Kyle Larson	90	—	Running	—	32
13	28	+15	Paul Menard	90	—	Running	—	31
14	25	+11	Greg Biffle	90	—	Running	—	30
15	20	+5	Ryan Newman	90	—	Running	—	29
16	21	+5	Aric Almirola	90	—	Running	—	28
17	22	+5	Danica Patrick	90	—	Running	—	27
18	29	+11	Casey Mears	90	—	Running	—	26
19	12	-7	Justin Allgaier	90	—	Running	—	25
20	31	+11	Michael McDowell	90	—	Running	—	24
21	33	+12	Cole Whitt	90	—	Running	2	24
22	34	+12	Trevor Bayne	90	—	Running	—	22
23	19	-4	David Ragan	90	—	Running	—	21
24	1	-23	A.J. Allmendinger	90	—	Running	21	21
25	2	-23	Martin Truex, Jr.	90	—	Running	5	20
26	27	+1	Matt DiBenedetto	90	—	Running	—	18
27	13	-14	Denny Hamlin	90	—	Running	—	17
28	35	+7	Alex Kennedy	90	—	Running	—	16
29	39	+10	Alex Bowman	90	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	J.J. Yeley	90	—	Running	—	0
31	40	+9	Michael Annett	90	—	Running	—	13
32	38	+6	Boris Said	89	—	Running	—	0
33	37	+4	David Gilliland	89	—	Running	—	11
34	30	-4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	89	—	Running	—	10
35	36	+1	Landon Cassill	89	—	Running	—	0
36	10	-26	Austin Dillon	89	—	Running	—	8
37	32	-5	Chris Buescher	88	—	Running	—	0
38	43	+5	Timmy Hill	88	—	Running	—	0
39	41	+2	Jeb Burton	88	—	Running	—	5
40	17	-23	Jamie McMurray	86	—	Running	—	4
41	5	-36	Jeff Gordon	86	—	Running	—	3
42	23	-19	Kasey Kahne	78	—	Running	—	2
43	3	-40	Tony Stewart	56	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	12.7	1	+11.7	Moderate
2	Kyle Busch	13.0	2	+11.0	Coinflip
7	Brad Keselowski	16.7	7	+9.7	High Confidence
10	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	10	+6.7	Moderate
12	Kyle Larson	12.9	12	+0.9	Moderate
18	Casey Mears	16.7	18	-1.3	Moderate
19	Justin Allgaier	16.8	19	-2.2	Moderate
20	Michael McDowell	13.0	20	-7.0	Moderate
24	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	24	-7.5	Coinflip
25	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	25	-8.5	Coinflip
27	Denny Hamlin	16.7	27	-10.3	Moderate
29	Alex Bowman	16.7	29	-12.3	Moderate
30	J.J. Yeley	21.9	30	-8.1	High Confidence
34	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.4	34	-12.6	High Confidence
36	Austin Dillon	21.4	36	-14.6	Moderate
37	Chris Buescher	10.2	37	-26.8	High Confidence
38	Timmy Hill	20.8	38	-17.2	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 23 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chris Buescher: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 15.7 avg finish (1 win), finishing P37 on the day.

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