NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO
Pocono Raceway — August 2, 2015
Matt Kenseth
Winner
160
Laps
43
Entries
13
Leaders
Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO at Pocono Raceway on August 2, 2015, leading 2 of 160 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Matt Kenseth |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Jeff Gordon |
| 4 | 15 | +11 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 5 | 25 | +20 | Greg Biffle |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 7 | 22 | +15 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Tony Stewart |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Carl Edwards |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Paul Menard |
| 12 | 27 | +15 | Kyle Larson |
| 13 | 4 | -9 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 29 | +15 | Landon Cassill |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Jamie McMurray |
| 16 | 20 | +4 | Danica Patrick |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | David Ragan |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 19 | 13 | -6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 20 | 3 | -17 | Joey Logano |
| 21 | 1 | -20 | Kyle Busch |
| 22 | 11 | -11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 23 | 14 | -9 | Ryan Newman |
| 24 | 31 | +7 | Justin Allgaier |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Alex Bowman |
| 26 | 39 | +13 | Michael Annett |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | Cole Whitt |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Casey Mears |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Brett Moffitt |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Travis Kvapil |
| 33 | 37 | +4 | David Gilliland |
| 34 | 41 | +7 | Reed Sorenson |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Jeb Burton |
| 36 | 43 | +7 | Timmy Hill |
| 37 | 6 | -31 | Kurt Busch |
| 38 | 42 | +4 | Alex Kennedy |
| 39 | 30 | -9 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 40 | 23 | -17 | Trevor Bayne |
| 41 | 34 | -7 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 42 | 2 | -40 | Kevin Harvick |
| 43 | 16 | -27 | Kasey Kahne |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.6 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 2 | +9.2 |
| 6 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 6 | +13.9 |
| 7 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 7 | +11.3 |
| 12 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 12 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 13 | +4.1 |
| 19 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 19 | -3.6 |
| 20 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 20 | -5.3 |
| 21 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 21 | -4.0 |
| 22 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 22 | -13.8 |
| 24 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 24 | -5.7 |
| 25 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 25 | -11.5 |
| 28 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 28 | -11.1 |
| 30 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 30 | -1.2 |
| 36 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 36 | -12.1 |
| 41 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 41 | -21.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Kenseth: has 42 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 15.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins), finishing P22 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 37 starts, 12.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO?
Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO at Pocono Raceway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO held?
The 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT POCONO was held at Pocono Raceway on August 2, 2015.