Coca-Cola 600

Charlotte Motor Speedway — May 28, 2017

Austin Dillon

Winner

400

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Austin Dillon won the 2017 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 28, 2017, leading 2 of 400 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2017

Winner

Austin Dillon

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	400	Winner	Running	2	45
2	3	+1	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	—	Running	63	61
3	9	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.	Furniture Row Racing	400	—	Running	233	60
4	16	+12	Matt Kenseth	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	—	Running	—	55
5	10	+5	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	—	Running	10	43
6	13	+7	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	400	—	Running	1	44
7	23	+16	Erik Jones	Furniture Row Racing	400	—	Running	—	39
8	1	-7	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	400	—	Running	45	41
9	2	-7	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	400	—	Running	—	28
10	12	+2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	Hendrick Motorsports	400	—	Running	—	29
11	21	+10	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	400	—	Running	—	29
12	7	-5	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	400	—	Running	—	31
13	17	+4	Paul Menard	Richard Childress Racing	400	—	Running	2	24
14	25	+11	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	400	—	Running	—	26
15	4	-11	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Roush Fenway Racing	400	—	Running	2	22
16	15	-1	Trevor Bayne	Roush Fenway Racing	400	—	Running	—	21
17	18	+1	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	400	—	Running	35	36
18	20	+2	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG Daugherty Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	19
19	36	+17	Michael McDowell	Leavine Family Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	18
20	28	+8	Chris Buescher	JTG Daugherty Racing	399	+1 Lap	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	159	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	David Ragan	Bob Jenkins	159	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	A.J. Allmendinger	JTG-Daugherty Racing	159	—	Running	—	15
24	—	—	Cole Whitt	Bryan Smith	159	—	Running	—	13
25	24	-1	Danica Patrick	Stewart-Haas Racing	396	+4 Laps	running	7	12
26	—	—	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi	159	—	Running	—	16
27	—	—	Joey Logano	Roger Penske	159	—	Running	—	10
28	—	—	Chris Buescher	JTG-Daugherty Racing	159	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Landon Cassill	Bob Jenkins	158	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Ryan Blaney	Wood Brothers	158	—	Running	—	13
31	—	—	Gray Gaulding	Jay Robinson	157	—	Running	—	6
32	—	—	Stephen Leicht	BK Racing	153	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi	148	—	Running	—	6
34	—	—	Derrike Cope	Jay Robinson	85	—	Transmission	—	3
35	—	—	Jimmie Johnson	Rick Hendrick	57	—	Accident	—	2
36	—	—	Jeffrey Earnhardt	Joe Falk	24	—	Engine	—	1
37	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	1	—	Accident	—	1
38	—	—	Aric Almirola	Richard Petty Motorsports	0	—	Accident	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kevin Harvick	1	1	—	20
Martin Truex, Jr.	4	4	—	14
Ryan Newman	6	3	—	13
Austin Dillon	11	6	—	5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	7	13	—	4
Denny Hamlin	8	28	—	3
Erik Jones	13	8	—	3
Clint Bowyer	15	9	—	2
Trevor Bayne	14	10	—	1
Jimmie Johnson	10	15	—	1
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
David Ragan	—	—	—	—
A.J. Allmendinger	—	—	—	—
Cole Whitt	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
Joey Logano	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
Ryan Blaney	—	—	—	—
Gray Gaulding	—	—	—	—
Stephen Leicht	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Derrike Cope	—	—	—	—
Jimmie Johnson	—	—	—	—
Jeffrey Earnhardt	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Aric Almirola	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Austin Dillon	17.1	1	+16.1	Coinflip
2	Kyle Busch	17.0	2	+15.0	Coinflip
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
7	Erik Jones	16.7	7	+9.7	Coinflip
11	Daniel Suarez	14.0	11	+3.0	Coinflip
15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
17	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	17	+2.9	Moderate
18	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	18	+0.3	Moderate
19	Michael McDowell	17.0	19	-2.0	Coinflip
20	Chris Buescher	9.2	20	-10.8	High Confidence
27	Joey Logano	14.7	27	-12.3	Coinflip
30	Ryan Blaney	9.2	30	-20.8	High Confidence
33	Kyle Larson	12.7	33	-20.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Austin Dillon: has 29 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P5 on the day.

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