South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway — September 16, 2018
Brad Keselowski
Winner
272
Laps
23
Entries
9
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 16, 2018, leading 75 of 272 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 33 | +30 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 8 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Ryan Newman |
| 10 | 35 | +25 | Paul Menard |
| 11 | 25 | +14 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 27 | +15 | Regan Smith |
| 13 | — | — | Trevor Bayne |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 17 | 38 | +21 | J.J. Yeley |
| 18 | 32 | +14 | Landon Cassill |
| 19 | 14 | -5 | Alex Bowman |
| 20 | 22 | +2 | Ross Chastain |
| 32 | 3 | -29 | Denny Hamlin |
| 35 | 17 | -18 | Jamie McMurray |
| 39 | 12 | -27 | Kevin Harvick |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Kyle Busch | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| Ryan Newman | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Aric Almirola | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Regan Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Trevor Bayne | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 1 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 5 | +4.2 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 7 | +10.0 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 8 | +6.0 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 11 | +6.1 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 15 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 17 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 17 | +11.8 |
| 19 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 19 | -5.5 |
| 20 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 20 | -6.7 |
| 32 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 32 | -23.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 14.7 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P32 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 27 starts, 10.6 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 South Point 400?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 South Point 400 held?
The 2018 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 16, 2018.