Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — September 10, 2018

Brad Keselowski

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 10, 2018, leading 9 of 160 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Monday, September 10, 2018

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2018

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Brad Keselowski	Team Penske	160	Winner	Running	9	49
2	6	+4	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs Racing	160	—	Running	—	44
3	9	+6	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	160	—	Running	37	42
4	2	-2	Kevin Harvick	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	22	33
5	14	+9	Clint Bowyer	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	37	42
6	11	+5	Kurt Busch	Stewart-Haas Racing	160	—	Running	19	46
7	20	+13	Jamie McMurray	Chip Ganassi Racing	160	—	Running	—	30
8	7	-1	Kyle Busch	Joe Gibbs Racing	160	—	Running	27	35
9	18	+9	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers Racing	160	—	Running	—	31
10	16	+6	Ryan Newman	Richard Childress Racing	160	—	Running	—	29
11	4	-7	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	160	—	Running	1	26
12	—	—	Matt Kenseth	Roush Fenway Racing	160	—	Running	5	35
13	1	-12	Joey Logano	Team Penske	160	—	Running	—	31
14	27	+13	Kyle Larson	Chip Ganassi Racing	160	—	Running	—	30
15	13	-2	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	33
16	22	+6	Jimmie Johnson	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	22
17	24	+7	Michael McDowell	Front Row Motorsports	160	—	Running	—	20
18	8	-10	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs Racing	160	—	Running	—	14
19	17	-2	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	160	—	Running	3	21
20	26	+6	Regan Smith	Leavine Family Racing	160	—	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Bubba Wallace	Richard Petty Motorsports	0	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Ty Dillon	Germain Racing	0	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	Chris Buescher	JTG-Daugherty Racing	0	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	William Byron	Rick Hendrick	0	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Paul Menard	Wood Brothers	0	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Matt DiBenedetto	Archie St. Hilaire	0	—	Running	—	11
27	—	—	Erik Jones	Joe Gibbs	0	—	Running	—	13
28	—	—	Michael McDowell	Bob Jenkins	0	—	Running	—	9
29	—	—	Alex Bowman	Rick Hendrick	0	—	Running	—	8
30	—	—	Daniel Suarez	Joe Gibbs	0	—	Running	—	7
31	—	—	Landon Cassill	StarCom Racing	0	—	Running	—	0
32	—	—	J.J. Yeley	Bob Jenkins	0	—	Running	—	0
33	—	—	Ross Chastain	Jay Robinson	0	—	Running	—	0
34	—	—	Corey LaJoie	Bryan Smith	0	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	B.J. McLeod	Rick Ware	0	—	Running	—	0
36	—	—	Kyle Weatherman	StarCom Racing	0	—	Running	—	1
37	—	—	Timmy Hill	Carl Long	0	—	Running	—	0
38	—	—	Tanner Berryhill	Victor Obaika	0	—	Running	—	1
39	—	—	Regan Smith	Leavine Family Racing	0	—	Running	—	1

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Kevin Harvick	2	1	—	19
Joey Logano	1	3	—	18
Ryan Blaney	3	2	—	17
Kyle Busch	4	5	—	13
Chase Elliott	10	4	—	8
Erik Jones	8	7	—	7
Paul Menard	5	—	—	6
Kyle Larson	—	6	—	5
Jimmie Johnson	9	8	—	5
Clint Bowyer	7	—	—	4
Brad Keselowski	—	—	—	—
Denny Hamlin	—	—	—	—
Kurt Busch	—	—	—	—
Jamie McMurray	—	—	—	—
Ryan Newman	—	—	—	—
Matt Kenseth	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
William Byron	—	—	—	—
Regan Smith	—	—	—	—
Bubba Wallace	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Chris Buescher	—	—	—	—
William Byron	—	—	—	—
Paul Menard	—	—	—	—
Matt DiBenedetto	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—
Alex Bowman	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Landon Cassill	—	—	—	—
J.J. Yeley	—	—	—	—
Ross Chastain	—	—	—	—
Corey LaJoie	—	—	—	—
B.J. McLeod	—	—	—	—
Kyle Weatherman	—	—	—	—
Timmy Hill	—	—	—	—
Tanner Berryhill	—	—	—	—
Regan Smith	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 21 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	11.2	1	+10.2	Moderate
2	Erik Jones	16.7	2	+14.7	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
8	Kyle Busch	17.0	8	+9.0	Coinflip
11	Ryan Blaney	9.2	11	-1.8	High Confidence
13	Joey Logano	14.7	13	+1.7	Coinflip
14	Kyle Larson	12.7	14	-1.3	Coinflip
15	Chase Elliott	7.8	15	-7.2	High Confidence
16	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	16	+3.9	Moderate
17	Michael McDowell	17.0	17	0.0	Coinflip
18	Daniel Suarez	14.0	18	-4.0	Coinflip
19	William Byron	10.7	19	-8.3	Moderate
21	Bubba Wallace	12.7	21	-8.3	Coinflip
22	Ty Dillon	23.4	22	+1.4	High Confidence
23	Chris Buescher	9.2	23	-13.8	High Confidence
29	Alex Bowman	13.5	29	-15.5	Coinflip
32	J.J. Yeley	28.8	32	-3.2	High Confidence
33	Ross Chastain	13.3	33	-19.7	Coinflip
34	Corey LaJoie	22.2	34	-11.8	High Confidence
35	B.J. McLeod	24.8	35	-10.2	High Confidence

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 14 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 9 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish, finishing P15 on the day.
Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 8 starts, 25.6 avg finish.

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