South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, September 16, 2018
Brad Keselowski
Winner
272
Laps
40
Entries
9
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 16, 2018, leading 75 of 272 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 16 | +10 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 22 | +13 | Ryan Newman |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Paul Menard |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 25 | +13 | Regan Smith |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Trevor Bayne |
| 14 | 29 | +15 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 28 | +13 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | 32 | +16 | Corey LaJoie |
| 17 | 36 | +19 | J.J. Yeley |
| 18 | 37 | +19 | Landon Cassill |
| 19 | 9 | -10 | Alex Bowman |
| 20 | 34 | +14 | Ross Chastain |
| 21 | 8 | -13 | Kurt Busch |
| 22 | 17 | -5 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 23 | 15 | -8 | Clint Bowyer |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 25 | 35 | +10 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 26 | 33 | +7 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 27 | 27 | — | David Ragan |
| 28 | 38 | +10 | B.J. McLeod |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Michael McDowell |
| 30 | 14 | -16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 31 | 40 | +9 | Reed Sorenson |
| 32 | 3 | -29 | Denny Hamlin |
| 33 | 39 | +6 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 30 | -4 | Ty Dillon |
| 35 | 12 | -23 | Jamie McMurray |
| 36 | 7 | -29 | Chase Elliott |
| 37 | 21 | -16 | William Byron |
| 38 | 31 | -7 | Bubba Wallace |
| 39 | 5 | -34 | Kevin Harvick |
| 40 | 1 | -39 | Erik Jones |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 1 | +14.4 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 2 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 4 | +7.9 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 8 | +4.7 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 14 | +3.1 |
| 15 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 17 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 17 | +11.6 |
| 19 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 19 | -2.8 |
| 20 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 20 | -5.5 |
| 22 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 22 | -2.1 |
| 28 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 28 | -3.3 |
| 29 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 29 | -12.1 |
| 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 30 | -10.1 |
| 32 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 32 | -25.8 |
| 33 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 33 | -9.1 |
| 34 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 34 | -11.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 15.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P32 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 South Point 400?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 South Point 400 held?
The 2018 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 16, 2018.