O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 3, 2026

Focused Health 302

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Laps 201 Distance 302 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, October 3, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Tyler Reddick has 22 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 12.8 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 16 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 average finish.
Denny Hamlin has 37 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 13.2 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1982-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Kyle Busch has won 7 times at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.3 average finish.

See Kyle Busch's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

Kyle Larson won the 2026 The LiUNA! at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

See Kyle Larson's results

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Focused Health 302 on?

The Focused Health 302 airs on CW on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The Focused Health 302 green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1624	25	3	P1(2026)
2	Chase Elliott		1617	13	0	P2(2026)
3	Tyler Reddick		1597	13	0	P13(2026)
4	Chris Buescher		1591	17	0	P6(2026)
5	Chase Briscoe		1579	7	0	P8(2026)
6	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1570	23	3	P10(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1561	15	1	P3(2026)
8	Ryan Preece		1544	5	0	P11(2026)
9	Bubba Wallace		1543	11	0	P9(2026)
10	Christopher Bell		1539	8	0	P4(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Tyler Reddick Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Chase Elliott	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Denny Hamlin	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chris Buescher	Favorite	9.2	15.4%	54.1%	72.9%
5	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	9.2	12.7%	49.0%	69.0%
6	Ryan Preece	Favorite	10.1	10.9%	46.4%	67.2%
7	Christopher Bell	Contender	10.7	9.6%	43.6%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.7	8.4%	40.3%	62.2%
9	Brad Keselowski	Contender	11.2	7.6%	38.0%	60.3%
10	Chase Briscoe	Contender	11.9	6.4%	35.5%	58.5%
11	Kyle Larson	Contender	12.7	5.2%	32.4%	56.7%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.7	5.1%	30.9%	55.5%
13	Carson Hocevar	Contender	13.1	4.3%	28.1%	53.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.3	3.8%	25.9%	50.5%
15	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	13.5	3.3%	24.0%	49.5%
16	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	21.8%	47.6%
17	Ty Gibbs	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.0%	20.3%	45.4%
18	Joey Logano	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.7%	18.8%	43.9%
19	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.9%	41.0%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	16.7	1.7%	13.5%	36.0%
21	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	16.9	1.4%	12.6%	34.6%
22	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
23	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.1%	10.9%	31.6%
24	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.3%	30.3%
25	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.5%	27.2%
26	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.5%	25.0%
27	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
28	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.7%	22.9%
29	Todd Gilliland	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.5%
31	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	22.9	0.2%	2.1%	10.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	11.2%
33	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.2%
34	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	1.9%	11.2%
35	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.3%	12.7%
36	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.9%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.4	0.1%	1.5%	8.7%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.8	0.0%	0.9%	6.7%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	56.1	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (23 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	The LiUNA!	Kyle Larson	+2.557	Hendrick Motorsports	47
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Aric Almirola	—		107
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Justin Allgaier	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	A.J. Allmendinger	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	John Hunter Nemechek	—		99

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	503
Chase Briscoe	256
Kyle Larson	232
Chandler Smith	215
Ross Chastain	195

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway reward the complete package — car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.