O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 3, 2026

Focused Health 302

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Laps 201 Distance 302 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Green Flag In

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Days

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Hrs

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Min

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 35 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 12.1 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 21 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.5 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 24 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 14.0 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Focused Health 302 on?

The Focused Health 302 airs on CW on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The Focused Health 302 green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1678	23	3	P1 (2026)
2	Chase Briscoe		1600	11	0	P8 (2026)
3	Christopher Bell		1576	13	0	P4 (2026)
4	Ryan Blaney		1565	20	0	P16 (2026)
5	Bubba Wallace		1559	17	0	P9 (2026)
6	William Byron	Prev Winner	1554	17	1	P3 (2026)
7	Chase Elliott		1550	18	0	P2 (2026)
8	Tyler Reddick		1550	13	0	P13 (2026)
9	Chris Buescher		1548	19	0	P6 (2026)
10	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1545	20	3	P7 (2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	9.2	15.5%	54.2%	73.0%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Kyle Larson	Favorite	10.1	11.1%	46.6%	67.3%
7	Bubba Wallace	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.8%	65.4%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.7	8.8%	41.5%	63.4%
9	Joey Logano	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
10	William Byron	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	11.9	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.7	5.1%	31.7%	55.8%
13	Ryan Preece	Contender	13.1	4.7%	28.7%	53.8%
14	Daniel Suarez	Contender	13.2	4.0%	26.9%	51.9%
15	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	25.0%	50.1%
16	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	22.7%	47.9%
17	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.5%	47.1%
18	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.4%	17.5%	41.8%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.5%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	15.4	1.9%	14.9%	38.8%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.4%	30.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.8%	9.6%	28.6%
24	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.4%	27.0%
25	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
28	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.3%	20.2%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.5%
30	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
31	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.9	0.2%	3.6%	15.6%
32	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	10.4%
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.0%
34	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.6%
35	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.7%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.9	0.1%	1.5%	8.8%
37	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.0%	1.1%	7.4%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	25.7	0.0%	0.6%	5.7%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	58.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (23 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	The LiUNA!	Kyle Larson	+2.557	Hendrick Motorsports	47
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Aric Almirola	—		107
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Justin Allgaier	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	A.J. Allmendinger	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	John Hunter Nemechek	—		99

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	503
Chase Briscoe	256
Kyle Larson	232
Chandler Smith	215
Ross Chastain	195

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.