O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, October 3, 2026

Focused Health 302

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Laps 201 Distance 302 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, October 3, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 35 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 3 wins and a 12.1 average finish.
Chase Briscoe has 18 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 14.9 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 24 starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 14.0 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Focused Health 302 on?

The Focused Health 302 airs on CW on Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The Focused Health 302 green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 3, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1679	23	3	P1(2026)
2	Chase Briscoe		1605	11	0	P8(2026)
3	Chris Buescher		1579	19	0	P6(2026)
4	Ryan Blaney		1568	20	0	P16(2026)
5	Chase Elliott		1560	18	0	P2(2026)
6	Christopher Bell		1559	13	0	P4(2026)
7	William Byron	Prev Winner	1555	17	1	P3(2026)
8	Tyler Reddick		1544	13	0	P13(2026)
9	Bubba Wallace		1544	17	0	P9(2026)
10	Daniel Suarez		1526	18	0	P18(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chris Buescher	Favorite	9.2	15.4%	54.1%	72.9%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Chase Elliott	Favorite	10.1	11.0%	46.4%	67.2%
7	Ty Gibbs	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.9%	65.4%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.7	8.7%	41.6%	63.4%
9	Tyler Reddick	Contender	11.2	7.7%	38.1%	60.3%
10	Joey Logano	Contender	11.9	6.7%	35.8%	58.9%
11	Daniel Suarez	Contender	12.7	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Bubba Wallace	Contender	12.7	5.2%	31.7%	56.0%
13	Kyle Larson	Contender	13.1	4.5%	28.6%	53.7%
14	Carson Hocevar	Contender	13.2	3.9%	26.3%	50.8%
15	Ryan Preece	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	24.9%	50.1%
16	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.7%	47.6%
17	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.8%	19.3%	44.4%
18	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.4%
19	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.4%
20	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	16.2	1.7%	13.6%	36.6%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	16.9	1.3%	12.4%	34.0%
22	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.1%	30.1%
23	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.9%	27.7%
24	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.1%	25.7%
25	Zane Smith	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.6%	22.7%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.5%	6.1%	21.9%
28	Austin Dillon	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.5%	20.9%
29	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	5.0%	19.7%
30	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.4%
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
32	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.1%	16.9%
33	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	11.0%
34	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.1%
35	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	22.0	0.1%	2.0%	11.7%
36	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	1.9%	10.4%
37	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.2	0.1%	2.1%	12.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.1%	1.3%	7.8%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	26.1	0.0%	0.5%	5.3%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	57.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

History at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (23 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	The LiUNA!	Kyle Larson	+2.557	Hendrick Motorsports	47
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Aric Almirola	—		107
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	Justin Allgaier	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	A.J. Allmendinger	—		102
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Las Vegas	John Hunter Nemechek	—		99

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Justin Allgaier	503
Chase Briscoe	256
Kyle Larson	232
Chandler Smith	215
Ross Chastain	195

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.