NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 7, 2007

Jamie McMurray

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 7, 2007, leading 3 of 160 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 7, 2007

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2007

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

11 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	3	190
2	11	+9	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	20	175
3	16	+13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	160	—	Running	45	170
4	7	+3	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	—	160
5	1	-4	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	7	160
6	18	+12	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	—	150
7	12	+5	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	55	156
8	3	-5	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	—	142
9	27	+18	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	138
10	4	-6	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	—	134
11	32	+21	David Gilliland		160	—	Running	—	130
12	24	+12	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	127
13	10	-3	Martin Truex, Jr.		160	—	Running	—	124
14	14	—	Ryan Newman	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	121
15	25	+10	Robby Gordon		160	—	Running	—	118
16	5	-11	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	—	115
17	9	-8	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	—	112
18	35	+17	Johnny Sauter		160	—	Running	—	109
19	21	+2	Casey Mears		160	—	Running	11	111
20	17	-3	J.J. Yeley		160	—	Running	—	103
21	41	+20	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	100
22	26	+4	David Stremme	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	97
23	40	+17	Dave Blaney		160	—	Running	—	94
24	38	+14	Bill Elliott		160	—	Running	2	96
25	43	+18	Kenny Wallace		160	—	Running	1	93
26	42	+16	David Reutimann		160	—	Running	—	85
27	37	+10	Dale Jarrett		160	—	Running	—	82
28	34	+6	John Andretti	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	79
29	36	+7	Brian Vickers		160	—	Running	—	76
30	33	+3	Joe Nemechek		160	—	Running	—	73
31	31	—	Ricky Rudd		158	—	Running	—	70
32	20	-12	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	157	—	Running	—	67
33	22	-11	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	153	—	Running	—	64
34	8	-26	Kevin Harvick		147	—	Running	3	66
35	19	-16	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	137	—	Running	1	63
36	13	-23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		134	—	DNF	—	55
37	30	-7	Jeff Green		131	—	DNF	—	52
38	6	-32	Tony Stewart		125	—	DNF	—	49
39	23	-16	Tony Raines		120	—	DNF	—	46
40	29	-11	Sterling Marlin		114	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Scott Riggs	Dodge	105	—	DNF	—	40
42	28	-14	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	103	—	DNF	—	37
43	2	-41	Denny Hamlin		99	—	DNF	10	39

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Kyle Busch	15.1	2	+13.1	Coinflip
10	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	10	+8.9	Coinflip
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	13	+7.1	Coinflip
19	Casey Mears	18.5	19	-0.5	Coinflip
20	J.J. Yeley	25.2	20	+5.2	High Confidence
43	Denny Hamlin	16.0	43	-27.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 43 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 20.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 69 starts, 17.3 avg finish.

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