Apache Warrior 400
Dover Motor Speedway — October 1, 2017
Kyle Busch
Winner
400
Laps
20
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on October 1, 2017, leading 30 of 400 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 4 | 5 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 13 | +4 | Jamie McMurray |
| 10 | 16 | +6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | Matt Kenseth |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Kasey Kahne |
| 15 | 9 | -6 | Joey Logano |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Kevin Harvick |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 27 | +8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 15 | -5 | Kurt Busch |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Kenseth | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Erik Jones | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 6 | — | 11 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 9 | — | 10 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 8 | 4 | — | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Ryan Newman | 9 | 8 | — | 5 |
| Jamie McMurray | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Kasey Kahne | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Danica Patrick | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1 | +14.6 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 4 | +9.8 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 5 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 8 | +7.6 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 15 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 15 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 19 | +1.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 13 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 12.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 9.6 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 8 starts, 9.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 held?
The 2017 Apache Warrior 400 was held at Dover Motor Speedway on October 1, 2017.