Apache Warrior 400
Dover Motor Speedway, October 1, 2017
Kyle Busch
Winner
400
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on October 1, 2017, leading 30 of 400 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 17 | +14 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 6 | 19 | +13 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 7 | — | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 26 | +17 | Jamie McMurray |
| 10 | 16 | +6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 4 | -7 | Matt Kenseth |
| 12 | 10 | -2 | Erik Jones |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Ryan Newman |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Kasey Kahne |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Kevin Harvick |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 13 | -7 | Kurt Busch |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | David Ragan |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Ty Dillon |
| 23 | 11 | -12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 24 | 20 | -4 | Trevor Bayne |
| 25 | 14 | -11 | Aric Almirola |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Paul Menard |
| 27 | 30 | +3 | Michael McDowell |
| 28 | 27 | -1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 29 | 31 | +2 | Landon Cassill |
| 30 | 22 | -8 | Chris Buescher |
| 31 | 40 | +9 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 32 | 33 | +1 | Cole Whitt |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Brett Moffitt |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 35 | 6 | -29 | Denny Hamlin |
| 36 | 36 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 38 | 32 | -6 | Ross Chastain |
| 39 | 39 | — | Reed Sorenson |
| 40 | 35 | -5 | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 5 | Kyle Larson | 9.9 | 5 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 8 | +7.6 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 12 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 15 | Joey Logano | 12.6 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.2 | 19 | +1.2 |
| 22 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 22 | +2.3 |
| 23 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 23 | -16.2 |
| 27 | Michael McDowell | 14.7 | 27 | -12.3 |
| 28 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 28 | -9.7 |
| 30 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 30 | -19.7 |
| 34 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 34 | -9.1 |
| 35 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 35 | -28.2 |
| 36 | B.J. McLeod | 25.7 | 36 | -10.3 |
| 38 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 38 | -24.2 |
| 40 | Timmy Hill | 23.1 | 40 | -16.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 15 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 15.6 avg finish, finishing P23 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 9 starts, 12.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Apache Warrior 400 held?
The 2017 Apache Warrior 400 was held at Dover Motor Speedway on October 1, 2017.