ISM Connect 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, September 24, 2017
Kyle Busch
Winner
300
Laps
39
Entries
3
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2017 ISM Connect 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 24, 2017, leading 187 of 300 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 3 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 24, 2017
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
3 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 2 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Matt Kenseth |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 5 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | Erik Jones |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 25 | +17 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 39 | +29 | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 14 | +3 | Chase Elliott |
| 12 | 3 | -9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 24 | +9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 20 | +3 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 18 | 27 | +9 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Austin Dillon |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Paul Menard |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 22 | 30 | +8 | Ty Dillon |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 23 | -1 | Trevor Bayne |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | Landon Cassill |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 35 | +7 | Reed Sorenson |
| 29 | 21 | -8 | David Ragan |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | Cole Whitt |
| 31 | 26 | -5 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Brett Moffitt |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Gray Gaulding |
| 34 | 15 | -19 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 35 | 9 | -26 | Kasey Kahne |
| 36 | 6 | -30 | Kevin Harvick |
| 37 | 7 | -30 | Kurt Busch |
| 38 | 37 | -1 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 39 | 38 | -1 | Cody Ware |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 4 | +9.8 |
| 5 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 5 | +9.0 |
| 6 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 6 | +11.7 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 8 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 9 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 10 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 12 | -5.2 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 14 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 15 | +5.4 |
| 17 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 17 | +3.1 |
| 19 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 19 | -1.3 |
| 21 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 21 | -9.0 |
| 22 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 22 | +1.1 |
| 23 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 23 | -7.4 |
| 27 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 27 | -2.1 |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 37.3 | 39 | -1.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 46 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 13.1 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 13.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P9 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P18. Track history: 13 starts, 14.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 ISM Connect 300?
Kyle Busch won the 2017 ISM Connect 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 ISM Connect 300 held?
The 2017 ISM Connect 300 was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 24, 2017.