Toyota/Save Mart 350
Sonoma Raceway — June 25, 2017
Kevin Harvick
Winner
365
Laps
40
Entries
10
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway on June 25, 2017, leading 24 of 365 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 6 | 19 | +13 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Chase Elliott |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 7 | -3 | Jamie McMurray |
| 11 | 30 | +19 | Paul Menard |
| 12 | 2 | -10 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Michael McDowell |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 16 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Danica Patrick |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 20 | 4 | -16 | Matt Kenseth |
| 21 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 22 | — | — | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 23 | — | — | Cole Whitt |
| 24 | — | — | Kasey Kahne |
| 25 | — | — | David Ragan |
| 26 | 9 | -17 | Kyle Larson |
| 27 | — | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 29 | — | — | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 30 | — | — | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 31 | — | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 32 | — | — | Derrike Cope |
| 33 | — | — | Carl Long |
| 34 | — | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 36 | — | — | Gray Gaulding |
| 37 | 13 | -24 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 38 | — | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 39 | — | — | Reed Sorenson |
| 40 | — | — | Clint Bowyer |
* Laps led data may be incomplete for this race.
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Daniel Suarez | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Kyle Busch | 8 | 9 | — | 5 |
| Ryan Blaney | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Joey Logano | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | 8 | — | 5 |
| Jamie McMurray | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Matt Kenseth | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10 | 10 | — | 2 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Danica Patrick | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Whitt | — | — | — | — |
| Kasey Kahne | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Derrike Cope | — | — | — | — |
| Carl Long | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Gray Gaulding | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 16.7 | 3 | +13.7 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 16.7 | 4 | +12.7 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 13.0 | 5 | +8.0 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 7.2 | 8 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 12.7 | 9 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Joey Logano | 12.7 | 12 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Jimmie Johnson | 16.7 | 13 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Michael McDowell | 13.0 | 14 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 16.8 | 16 | +0.8 |
| 18 | Austin Dillon | 21.4 | 18 | +3.4 |
| 19 | Chris Buescher | 10.2 | 19 | -8.8 |
| 26 | Kyle Larson | 12.9 | 26 | -13.1 |
| 28 | Corey LaJoie | 21.4 | 28 | -6.6 |
| 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21.4 | 29 | -7.6 |
| 34 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16.5 | 34 | -17.5 |
| 37 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 16.5 | 37 | -20.5 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 7 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Sonoma Raceway with a 8.9 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 8 starts, 12.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350?
Kevin Harvick won the 2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350 held?
The 2017 Toyota/Save Mart 350 was held at Sonoma Raceway on June 25, 2017.