Bojangles' Southern 500
Darlington Raceway, September 2, 2018
Brad Keselowski
Winner
367
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018, leading 24 of 367 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 2, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | +12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Joey Logano |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 22 | +18 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 31 | +22 | Jamie McMurray |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 12 | 25 | +13 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Chris Buescher |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | Aric Almirola |
| 15 | 21 | +6 | Ryan Blaney |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Austin Dillon |
| 17 | 14 | -3 | Paul Menard |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | David Ragan |
| 19 | 6 | -13 | Ryan Newman |
| 20 | 26 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | Ty Dillon |
| 22 | 24 | +2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 23 | 4 | -19 | Alex Bowman |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Kasey Kahne |
| 25 | 15 | -10 | Matt Kenseth |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 27 | 34 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Ross Chastain |
| 29 | 16 | -13 | Daniel Suarez |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Landon Cassill |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Derrike Cope |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 35 | 10 | -25 | William Byron |
| 36 | 17 | -19 | Clint Bowyer |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
| 38 | 30 | -8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 39 | 20 | -19 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 40 | 39 | -1 | Joey Gase |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 25 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 1 | +14.4 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 2 | +9.9 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 3 | +10.1 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 5 | +5.1 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 10 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 11 | +4.4 |
| 12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 13 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 13 | -3.8 |
| 15 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 15 | -6.8 |
| 16 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 16 | +3.9 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 20 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 21 | +1.9 |
| 22 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 22 | -4.9 |
| 23 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 23 | -6.8 |
| 26 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 26 | -13.3 |
| 27 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 27 | -4.8 |
| 28 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 28 | -13.5 |
| 29 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 29 | -16.3 |
| 31 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 31 | -2.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 30 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 held?
The 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018.