Ford EcoBoost 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 18, 2018
Joey Logano
Winner
267
Laps
39
Entries
7
Leaders
Joey Logano won the 2018 Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18, 2018, leading 80 of 267 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 12 | +9 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Matt Kenseth |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 26 | +18 | Clint Bowyer |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Kurt Busch |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 1 | -11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 13 | 11 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 15 | 8 | -7 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 9 | -7 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 15 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Jamie McMurray |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | David Ragan |
| 21 | 23 | +2 | Bubba Wallace |
| 22 | 31 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 23 | 27 | +4 | Chris Buescher |
| 24 | 28 | +4 | William Byron |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Paul Menard |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 27 | 7 | -20 | Erik Jones |
| 28 | 24 | -4 | Michael McDowell |
| 29 | 13 | -16 | Alex Bowman |
| 30 | 18 | -12 | Daniel Suarez |
| 31 | 32 | +1 | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | 33 | +1 | J.J. Yeley |
| 33 | 39 | +6 | Ross Chastain |
| 34 | 34 | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Timmy Hill |
| 38 | 37 | -1 | Tanner Berryhill |
| 39 | 30 | -9 | Regan Smith |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 1 | +10.9 |
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 2 | +13.4 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 5 | +10.4 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 7 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 12 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 12 | -5.8 |
| 13 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 13 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 14 | +5.9 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 16 | +3.9 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 17 | -8.8 |
| 19 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 19 | -1.9 |
| 21 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 21 | -8.3 |
| 22 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 22 | +0.9 |
| 23 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 23 | -13.8 |
| 24 | William Byron | 10.7 | 24 | -13.3 |
| 27 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 27 | -12.3 |
| 28 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 28 | -11.1 |
| 29 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 29 | -12.8 |
| 30 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 30 | -17.3 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 32 | -3.4 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Joey Logano: has 21 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 20 starts, 11.3 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Ford EcoBoost 400?
Joey Logano won the 2018 Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 Ford EcoBoost 400 held?
The 2018 Ford EcoBoost 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18, 2018.