Bojangles' Southern 500

Darlington Raceway, September 2, 2018

Brad Keselowski
Winner
367
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018, leading 24 of 367 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 2, 2018
Season
2018
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 13 +12 Brad Keselowski
2 8 +6 Joey Logano
3 2 -1 Kyle Larson
4 22 +18 Kevin Harvick
5 11 +6 Chase Elliott
6 9 +3 Kurt Busch
7 5 -2 Kyle Busch
8 7 -1 Erik Jones
9 31 +22 Jamie McMurray
10 1 -9 Denny Hamlin
11 3 -8 Martin Truex, Jr.
12 25 +13 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
13 19 +6 Chris Buescher
14 12 -2 Aric Almirola
15 21 +6 Ryan Blaney
16 18 +2 Austin Dillon
17 14 -3 Paul Menard
18 23 +5 David Ragan
19 6 -13 Ryan Newman
20 26 +6 Michael McDowell
21 28 +7 Ty Dillon
22 24 +2 A.J. Allmendinger
23 4 -19 Alex Bowman
24 29 +5 Kasey Kahne
25 15 -10 Matt Kenseth
26 27 +1 Bubba Wallace
27 34 +7 Corey LaJoie
28 33 +5 Ross Chastain
29 16 -13 Daniel Suarez
30 35 +5 Landon Cassill
31 32 +1 J.J. Yeley
32 37 +5 B.J. McLeod
33 38 +5 Derrike Cope
34 40 +6 Jeffrey Earnhardt
35 10 -25 William Byron
36 17 -19 Clint Bowyer
37 36 -1 Timmy Hill
38 30 -8 Matt DiBenedetto
39 20 -19 Jimmie Johnson
40 39 -1 Joey Gase
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 25 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Brad Keselowski 15.4 1 +14.4
2 Joey Logano 11.9 2 +9.9
3 Kyle Larson 13.1 3 +10.1
5 Chase Elliott 10.1 5 +5.1
8 Erik Jones 14.7 8 +6.7
10 Denny Hamlin 6.2 10 -3.8
11 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 11 +4.4
12 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 12 +7.9
13 Chris Buescher 9.2 13 -3.8
15 Ryan Blaney 8.2 15 -6.8
16 Austin Dillon 19.9 16 +3.9
20 Michael McDowell 16.9 20 -3.1
21 Ty Dillon 22.9 21 +1.9
22 A.J. Allmendinger 17.1 22 -4.9
23 Alex Bowman 16.2 23 -6.8
26 Bubba Wallace 12.7 26 -13.3
27 Corey LaJoie 22.2 27 -4.8
28 Ross Chastain 14.5 28 -13.5
29 Daniel Suarez 12.7 29 -16.3
31 J.J. Yeley 28.6 31 -2.4

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brad Keselowski: has 30 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.0 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P10 on the day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 held?
The 2018 Bojangles' Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 2, 2018.