Gander Outdoors 400
Pocono Raceway — July 29, 2018
Kyle Busch
Winner
164
Laps
39
Entries
10
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 at Pocono Raceway on July 29, 2018, leading 52 of 164 laps. Daniel Suarez finished second; Alex Bowman rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | +10 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 38 | +36 | Daniel Suarez |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Alex Bowman |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Erik Jones |
| 6 | 19 | +13 | William Byron |
| 7 | 18 | +11 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Ryan Newman |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Kurt Busch |
| 10 | 2 | -8 | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Clint Bowyer |
| 12 | 4 | -8 | Ryan Blaney |
| 13 | 26 | +13 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 28 | +14 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 3 | -12 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Matt Kenseth |
| 19 | 40 | +21 | David Ragan |
| 20 | 14 | -6 | Jamie McMurray |
| 21 | — | — | Regan Smith |
| 22 | — | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 23 | — | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 24 | — | — | David Ragan |
| 25 | — | — | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | — | — | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | — | — | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | — | — | Alex Bowman |
| 29 | — | — | Ty Dillon |
| 30 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 31 | — | — | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 32 | — | — | J.J. Yeley |
| 33 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 34 | — | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 35 | — | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 36 | — | — | Jimmie Johnson |
| 37 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 38 | 7 | -31 | Brad Keselowski |
| 39 | — | — | Timmy Hill |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 2 | — | 18 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 4 | — | 14 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Alex Bowman | 8 | 6 | — | 8 |
| Kurt Busch | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Erik Jones | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Regan Smith | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 1 | +16.0 |
| 2 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 2 | +12.0 |
| 3 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 3 | +10.5 |
| 5 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 5 | +11.7 |
| 6 | William Byron | 10.7 | 6 | +4.7 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 7 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 10 | -1.8 |
| 12 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 12 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 13 | +4.1 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 14 | +4.3 |
| 15 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 15 | +0.4 |
| 16 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 16 | +1.0 |
| 17 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 17 | +2.9 |
| 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 23 | -10.3 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 25 | -15.8 |
| 29 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 29 | -5.6 |
| 30 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 30 | -7.8 |
| 32 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 32 | -3.2 |
| 34 | B.J. McLeod | 24.8 | 34 | -9.2 |
| 37 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 37 | -23.7 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 47 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 14.9 avg finish (8 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 7.9 avg finish (1 win), finishing P7 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 at Pocono Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 held?
The 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 was held at Pocono Raceway on July 29, 2018.