Ford EcoBoost 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 17, 2019
Kyle Busch
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Kyle Busch won the 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 17, 2019, leading 120 of 267 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 16 | +13 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 2 | -2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 5 | — | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Ryan Newman |
| 8 | 22 | +14 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 11 | 7 | -4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 12 | 25 | +13 | Daniel Hemric |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Chase Elliott |
| 16 | 20 | +4 | Chris Buescher |
| 17 | 19 | +2 | Paul Menard |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 19 | 23 | +4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 21 | +1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 21 | 13 | -8 | Kurt Busch |
| 22 | 14 | -8 | Aric Almirola |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 24 | 24 | — | Ty Dillon |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Ryan Preece |
| 26 | 28 | +2 | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | David Ragan |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Landon Cassill |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Drew Herring |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 29 | -2 | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 39 | +7 | B.J. McLeod |
| 33 | 40 | +7 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 27 | -7 | Bubba Wallace |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Ross Chastain |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 37 | 35 | -2 | Reed Sorenson |
| 38 | 32 | -6 | Joe Nemechek |
| 39 | 9 | -30 | William Byron |
| 40 | 6 | -34 | Kyle Larson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 26 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 2 | +13.4 |
| 3 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 3 | +11.7 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 5 | +6.9 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 8 | +11.9 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 9 | +7.2 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 10 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 11 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 13 | +6.9 |
| 14 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 14 | -1.3 |
| 15 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 15 | -4.9 |
| 16 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 16 | -6.8 |
| 18 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 18 | -2.6 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 19 | +0.9 |
| 23 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 23 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 24 | -1.1 |
| 25 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 25 | -11.7 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 26 | -9.1 |
| 30 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 30 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 31 | -8.8 |
| 32 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 32 | -7.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Busch: has 38 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 20 starts, 11.3 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400?
Kyle Busch won the 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 held?
The 2019 Ford EcoBoost 400 was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 17, 2019.