South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, September 27, 2020
Kurt Busch
Winner
268
Laps
39
Entries
11
Leaders
Kurt Busch won the 2020 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 27, 2020, leading 29 of 268 laps. Matt DiBenedetto finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 27, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | +8 | Kurt Busch |
| 2 | 19 | +17 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Alex Bowman |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 13 | +5 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 16 | +7 | Chris Buescher |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Kevin Harvick |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Clint Bowyer |
| 13 | 12 | -1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 14 | 5 | -9 | Joey Logano |
| 15 | 27 | +12 | Ryan Newman |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Cole Custer |
| 17 | 4 | -13 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 20 | +2 | Matt Kenseth |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Ryan Preece |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 3 | -19 | Chase Elliott |
| 23 | 33 | +10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | Christopher Bell |
| 25 | 28 | +3 | William Byron |
| 26 | 24 | -2 | Ty Dillon |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 23 | -5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 29 | 29 | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Brennan Poole |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Gray Gaulding |
| 32 | 7 | -25 | Austin Dillon |
| 33 | 37 | +4 | J.J. Yeley |
| 34 | 32 | -2 | Quin Houff |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Joey Gase |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
| 38 | 14 | -24 | Tyler Reddick |
| 39 | 39 | — | Chad Finchum |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 1 | — | 17 |
| Alex Bowman | 8 | 3 | — | 11 |
| Ryan Blaney | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 7 | — | 10 |
| Austin Dillon | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Joey Logano | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Kyle Busch | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
| William Byron | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Gray Gaulding | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Chad Finchum | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.4 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 3 | +3.2 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 5 | +11.2 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 7 | +1.2 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 9 | +0.2 |
| 11 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 13 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 14 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 14 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 16 | +6.0 |
| 19 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 19 | -5.7 |
| 20 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 20 | -1.7 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 21 | -4.1 |
| 22 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 22 | -11.9 |
| 23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 23 | -3.1 |
| 24 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 25 | William Byron | 10.7 | 25 | -14.3 |
| 26 | Ty Dillon | 22.9 | 26 | -3.1 |
| 27 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 27 | -4.8 |
| 28 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 28 | -15.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kurt Busch: has 26 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 19.9 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P15. Track history: 26 starts, 9.7 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 South Point 400?
Kurt Busch won the 2020 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Richard Childress Racing.
Where was the 2020 South Point 400 held?
The 2020 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 27, 2020.