South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway — September 26, 2021
Denny Hamlin
Winner
267
Laps
20
Entries
10
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 26, 2021, leading 137 of 267 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 26, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 2 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 20 | +14 | Tyler Reddick |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 9 | — | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 10 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 15 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 13 | 23 | +10 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Chase Briscoe |
| 15 | 17 | +2 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | William Byron |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 20 | 19 | -1 | Ryan Newman |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 6 | — | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| William Byron | 6 | 10 | — | 6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 19 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | 11 | 8 | — | 3 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | 15 | — | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 13 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 10 | 13 | — | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 1 | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 1 | +7.2 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 2 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 3 | +14.0 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 5 | +4.2 |
| 6 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 6 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 7 | +4.2 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 10 | +2.7 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 11 | +3.7 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 13 | +4.1 |
| 14 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 14 | -2.1 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 16 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 17 | +2.9 |
| 18 | William Byron | 10.7 | 18 | -7.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 52 starts, 11.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 South Point 400?
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 South Point 400 held?
The 2021 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 26, 2021.