Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, March 7, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
267
Laps
38
Entries
12
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 7, 2021, leading 103 of 267 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, March 7, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
12 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 14 | +11 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 6 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 26 | +21 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Christopher Bell |
| 8 | 2 | -6 | William Byron |
| 9 | 15 | +6 | Joey Logano |
| 10 | 29 | +19 | Erik Jones |
| 11 | 17 | +6 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 12 | 12 | — | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 8 | -5 | Chase Elliott |
| 14 | 18 | +4 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Ryan Preece |
| 16 | 30 | +14 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 17 | 5 | -12 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 13 | -5 | Ryan Newman |
| 19 | 7 | -12 | Kurt Busch |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Kevin Harvick |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Chase Briscoe |
| 22 | 11 | -11 | Tyler Reddick |
| 23 | 21 | -2 | Ross Chastain |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | Cole Custer |
| 26 | 22 | -4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 27 | 9 | -18 | Alex Bowman |
| 28 | 23 | -5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 29 | 25 | -4 | Justin Haley |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 31 | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 32 | 32 | — | Cody Ware |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Quin Houff |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Joey Gase |
| 35 | 35 | — | Josh Bilicki |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Timmy Hill |
| 37 | 33 | -4 | Corey LaJoie |
| 38 | 28 | -10 | Aric Almirola |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Ryan Blaney | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| William Byron | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | 6 | — | 11 |
| Kyle Larson | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 2 | 10 | — | 10 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 7 | — | 9 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 10 | 8 | — | 4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 30 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 1 | +12.1 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 2 | +13.4 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 4 | +2.2 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 6 | +9.4 |
| 7 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 7 | +2.2 |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.7 | 8 | +2.7 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 9 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 10 | +4.7 |
| 11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 11 | +8.9 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 13 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 13 | -2.9 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 14 | -4.8 |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 15 | -1.7 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 17 | -0.1 |
| 21 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 21 | -13.2 |
| 22 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 22 | -10.8 |
| 23 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 23 | -8.5 |
| 24 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 24 | -2.6 |
| 25 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 25 | -3.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 25 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P32 vs predicted P57. Track history: 12 starts, 31.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube held?
The 2021 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 7, 2021.