South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway, September 26, 2021
Denny Hamlin
Winner
267
Laps
38
Entries
10
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 26, 2021, leading 137 of 267 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 26, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 11 | +9 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 10 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 4 | 4 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Tyler Reddick |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 14 | +2 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Austin Dillon |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Chase Briscoe |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Daniel Suarez |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 22 | +5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | William Byron |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Aric Almirola |
| 20 | 29 | +9 | Ryan Newman |
| 21 | 23 | +2 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 7 | -15 | Alex Bowman |
| 23 | 18 | -5 | Ross Chastain |
| 24 | 12 | -12 | Christopher Bell |
| 25 | 25 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | 16 | -10 | Erik Jones |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 28 | 24 | -4 | Ryan Preece |
| 29 | 28 | -1 | Cole Custer |
| 30 | 27 | -3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 31 | 35 | +4 | Cody Ware |
| 32 | 33 | +1 | Justin Haley |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | B.J. McLeod |
| 34 | 36 | +2 | Quin Houff |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Garrett Smithley |
| 36 | 31 | -5 | Josh Bilicki |
| 37 | 37 | — | Joey Gase |
| 38 | 38 | — | J.J. Yeley |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 1 | — | 18 |
| Kyle Busch | 2 | 2 | — | 18 |
| Tyler Reddick | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 10 | 4 | — | 8 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| Kevin Harvick | 8 | 8 | — | 6 |
| Joey Logano | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| William Byron | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 30 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 1 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 10.1 | 2 | +8.1 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 6 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 6 | +5.2 |
| 7 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 7 | +8.4 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 10 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 11 | +0.9 |
| 13 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 13 | +6.9 |
| 14 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 14 | -6.2 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 15 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 16 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 17 | +2.9 |
| 18 | William Byron | 10.7 | 18 | -7.3 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 16.9 | 21 | -4.1 |
| 22 | Alex Bowman | 16.2 | 22 | -5.8 |
| 23 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 23 | -8.5 |
| 24 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 25 | -15.8 |
| 26 | Erik Jones | 14.7 | 26 | -11.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 35 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (3 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P31 vs predicted P57. Track history: 12 starts, 31.8 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 South Point 400?
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 South Point 400 held?
The 2021 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 26, 2021.