Overton's 301
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, July 16, 2017
Denny Hamlin
Winner
301
Laps
39
Entries
6
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2017 Overton's 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2017, leading 54 of 301 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, July 16, 2017
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 39 | +37 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Matt Kenseth |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Daniel Suarez |
| 7 | 19 | +12 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 2 | -8 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 11 | 11 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 12 | 7 | -5 | Kyle Busch |
| 13 | 30 | +17 | Danica Patrick |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Austin Dillon |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Ty Dillon |
| 17 | 4 | -13 | Jamie McMurray |
| 18 | 18 | — | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 20 | 27 | +7 | Trevor Bayne |
| 21 | 23 | +2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Paul Menard |
| 23 | 28 | +5 | Landon Cassill |
| 24 | 21 | -3 | Aric Almirola |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Chris Buescher |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | 24 | -3 | Ryan Newman |
| 28 | 5 | -23 | Kasey Kahne |
| 29 | 32 | +3 | David Ragan |
| 30 | 16 | -14 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 31 | 31 | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 36 | +4 | Ryan Sieg |
| 33 | 37 | +4 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 34 | 35 | +1 | Reed Sorenson |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Gray Gaulding |
| 36 | 38 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 37 | 13 | -24 | Joey Logano |
| 38 | 33 | -5 | Cole Whitt |
| 39 | 6 | -33 | Erik Jones |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 6 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 9 | +4.8 |
| 10 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 10 | +8.0 |
| 11 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 14 | +6.4 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 15 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 19 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 19 | -12.2 |
| 21 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 21 | -0.9 |
| 25 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 25 | -13.0 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 26 | -10.4 |
| 31 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 31 | -6.1 |
| 36 | Josh Bilicki | 28.1 | 36 | -7.9 |
| 37 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 37 | -26.7 |
| 39 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 39 | -21.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 34 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 9.3 avg finish (3 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P14. Track history: 27 starts, 11.1 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Overton's 301?
Denny Hamlin won the 2017 Overton's 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Overton's 301 held?
The 2017 Overton's 301 was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2017.