GEICO 500
Talladega Superspeedway, April 25, 2021
Brad Keselowski
Winner
191
Laps
40
Entries
17
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2021 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 25, 2021, leading 1 of 191 laps. William Byron finished second; Michael McDowell rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 25, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
17 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | William Byron |
| 3 | 23 | +20 | Michael McDowell |
| 4 | 16 | +12 | Kevin Harvick |
| 5 | 13 | +8 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 6 | 38 | +32 | Kaz Grala |
| 7 | 20 | +13 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 11 | +3 | Austin Dillon |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 27 | +17 | Cole Custer |
| 11 | 25 | +14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 12 | 30 | +18 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 13 | 28 | +15 | Ryan Newman |
| 14 | 29 | +15 | Ryan Preece |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 16 | 18 | +2 | Ross Chastain |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Christopher Bell |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Kyle Busch |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 39 | +19 | Harrison Burton |
| 21 | 21 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 22 | 26 | +4 | Corey LaJoie |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 24 | 8 | -16 | Chase Elliott |
| 25 | 31 | +6 | B.J. McLeod |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | J.J. Yeley |
| 27 | 22 | -5 | Erik Jones |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Cody Ware |
| 29 | 40 | +11 | Timmy Hill |
| 30 | 34 | +4 | Justin Haley |
| 31 | 3 | -28 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 32 | 1 | -31 | Denny Hamlin |
| 33 | 17 | -16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 34 | 35 | +1 | Joey Gase |
| 35 | 15 | -20 | Kurt Busch |
| 36 | 36 | — | Josh Bilicki |
| 37 | 32 | -5 | Quin Houff |
| 38 | 5 | -33 | Alex Bowman |
| 39 | 2 | -37 | Joey Logano |
| 40 | 12 | -28 | Kyle Larson |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 2 | 6 | — | 14 |
| Michael McDowell | 8 | 3 | — | 11 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Chris Buescher | 6 | 7 | — | 9 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | — | — | 7 |
| William Byron | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Ryan Preece | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Kevin Harvick | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Kaz Grala | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | 10 | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 31 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 1 | +17.5 |
| 2 | William Byron | 13.9 | 2 | +11.9 |
| 3 | Michael McDowell | 19.2 | 3 | +16.2 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 13.9 | 7 | +6.9 |
| 8 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 8 | +13.1 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 10 | +12.9 |
| 11 | Chase Briscoe | 20.5 | 11 | +9.5 |
| 12 | Anthony Alfredo | 23.4 | 12 | +11.4 |
| 14 | Ryan Preece | 21.1 | 14 | +7.1 |
| 16 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 16 | 0.0 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 15.1 | 17 | -1.9 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 16.9 | 19 | -2.1 |
| 21 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 21 | -7.4 |
| 22 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 22 | +1.3 |
| 23 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 23 | -7.9 |
| 24 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 24 | -10.4 |
| 25 | B.J. McLeod | 25.5 | 25 | +0.5 |
| 26 | J.J. Yeley | 25.5 | 26 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 27 | -11.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 38 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 GEICO 500?
Brad Keselowski won the 2021 GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2021 GEICO 500 held?
The 2021 GEICO 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on April 25, 2021.