O'Reilly Series Preview Friday, September 18, 2026

Food City 300

Bristol Motor Speedway

Laps 300 Distance 160 mi Type short Coverage CW · 7:30 PM ET

0.533

concrete

Surface

Race Date

Friday, September 18, 2026

7:30 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 48 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 4 wins and a 14.3 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 28 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 11.6 average finish.
Chase Elliott has 29 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Bristol Motor Speedway from 1982-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Kyle Busch has won 20 times at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 average finish.

See Kyle Busch's full stats

LAST TIME HERE

Christopher Bell won the 2026 Tennessee Army National Guard 250 at Bristol Motor Speedway.

See Christopher Bell's results

Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Food City 300 on?

The Food City 300 airs on CW on Friday, September 18, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, broadcast from Bristol Motor Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The Food City 300 green flag is set for 7:30 PM ET on Friday, September 18, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1656	25	3	P3(2026)
2	Ryan Blaney		1648	19	0	P2(2026)
3	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1623	28	4	P9(2026)
4	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1594	13	2	P27(2026)
5	Joey Logano	Prev Winner	1577	27	3	P7(2026)
6	Chase Elliott		1575	22	0	P22(2026)
7	William Byron		1550	14	0	P30(2026)
8	Ty Gibbs	Prev Winner	1544	8	1	P1(2026)
9	Ross Chastain		1539	9	0	P20(2026)
10	Brad Keselowski	Prev Winner	1536	26	2	P14(2026)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.8	18.6%	57.4%	75.8%
2	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	6.8	17.5%	56.5%	74.9%
3	Chase Elliott	Favorite	8.3	16.2%	54.5%	73.7%
4	Kyle Larson	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
5	Christopher Bell	Favorite	8.6	13.2%	49.6%	69.7%
6	Tyler Reddick	Favorite	9.9	11.5%	46.2%	67.5%
7	Chris Buescher	Contender	10.3	9.5%	42.9%	65.3%
8	William Byron	Contender	10.3	8.2%	38.9%	62.3%
9	Ryan Preece	Contender	10.8	7.0%	36.4%	60.8%
10	Brad Keselowski	Contender	12.0	5.5%	33.9%	58.6%
11	Joey Logano	Contender	12.1	4.9%	31.2%	56.4%
12	Ty Gibbs	Contender	12.6	4.3%	29.9%	54.7%
13	Chase Briscoe	Contender	12.6	3.5%	26.2%	51.2%
14	Ross Chastain	Contender	13.8	3.4%	24.9%	50.2%
15	Bubba Wallace	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
16	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	14.0	2.7%	20.6%	45.7%
17	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.7	2.4%	17.8%	42.8%
18	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	15.0	2.1%	16.7%	41.1%
19	Daniel Suarez	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.7%	15.2%	38.3%
20	Kyle Busch	Mid-Pack	15.6	1.3%	13.3%	35.5%
21	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.2%	30.9%
22	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	17.0	0.8%	10.8%	32.6%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.7%	9.1%	28.8%
24	Casey Mears	Mid-Pack	18.0	0.6%	7.3%	23.8%
25	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	17.7	0.5%	8.1%	25.8%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.4%	6.4%	21.9%
27	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.0	0.4%	5.0%	20.3%
28	John Hunter Nemechek	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	20.1	0.3%	4.2%	18.6%
30	A.J. Allmendinger	Dark Horse	18.3	0.3%	5.7%	21.0%
31	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	20.3	0.2%	2.8%	14.8%
32	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	21.2	0.2%	2.4%	11.9%
33	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.2	0.2%	3.3%	16.3%
34	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.5%	8.1%
35	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.1	0.1%	1.9%	8.6%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	23.0	0.1%	1.6%	8.4%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	24.3	0.1%	0.8%	6.0%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	25.6	0.0%	0.6%	4.3%
39	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	29.8	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

History at Bristol Motor Speedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (24 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Team	Laps Led
2026	Suburban Propane 300	Connor Zilisch	+0.703	Trackhouse Racing	24
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol	Aric Almirola	—		34
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol	Kyle Larson	—		277
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol	Cole Custer	—		104
2023	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Bristol	Justin Allgaier	—		110

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Kyle Larson	1253
Justin Allgaier	1093
Cole Custer	244
Sam Mayer	184
Daniel Hemric	180

Track Type Tendencies

short

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays

Kyle Larson 1253 laps led

Justin Allgaier 1093 laps led

Cole Custer 244 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays

Carson Kvapil 3.67 avg

Chandler Smith 4.00 avg

Kyle Larson 4.91 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks

Carson Kvapil 3.67 avg, 0 wins

Chandler Smith 4.00 avg, 0 wins

Chase Elliott 6.60 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

Explore More

Track History