Cup Series Preview

68th Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway
Laps 200 Distance 500 mi Type superspeedway Coverage FOX · 1:30 PM ET Green Flag 2:13 PM ET Stages 65 / 130 / 200 Purse $31,045,575
2.5
MI
asphalt
Surface
Race Complete
Sunday, February 15, 2026
1:30 PM ET

There is no race in motorsports quite like the Daytona 500. Since 1959, the Great American Race has opened the NASCAR season with 200 laps around a 2.5-mile tri-oval that demands courage, patience, and a willingness to trust the draft. The 31-degree banking in the turns pushes speeds north of 200 mph, and the pack racing that defines Daytona means 40 cars often run nose-to-tail, three-wide, inches apart at those speeds. The draft is everything here — a single car cannot break away, so alliances form, dissolve, and re-form with every lap. And then there is the inevitability of The Big One, the massive multi-car wreck that reshapes the field in seconds and reminds everyone how thin the margin is between glory and heartbreak. Superspeedway racing creates unpredictable winners — underdogs rise, favorites fall, and the outcome often comes down to who survives the chaos of the final laps. The Harley J. Earl Trophy is the prize every driver dreams of holding, a career-defining moment that transcends any points battle or championship. When the green flag drops on the Daytona 500, the season truly begins, and anything is possible.

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Historical Context

  • Tyler Reddick has 17 starts at Daytona International Speedway with 3 wins and a 13.9 average finish.
  • Chase Elliott has 30 starts at Daytona International Speedway with 2 wins and a 15.9 average finish.
  • Chris Buescher has 25 starts at Daytona International Speedway with 1 win and a 16.2 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Daytona International Speedway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Richard Petty has won 10 times at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.0 average finish.

See Richard Petty's full stats
LAST TIME HERE

The last Cup race at Daytona International Speedway was the 2026 Daytona 500 (chaos score: 83.0).

Track history
Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Storyline

Byron's Three-Peat Bid

William Byron won the Daytona 500 in both 2024 and 2025 driving the No. 24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports. He's attempting something no driver in history has accomplished: winning three consecutive Daytona 500s.

Five drivers have won back-to-back — Richard Petty (1973-74), Cale Yarborough (1983-84), Sterling Marlin (1994-95), Denny Hamlin (2019-20), and Byron (2024-25) — but nobody has made it three in a row.

Byron's crew chief Rudy Fugle has been on the box for both wins. In 2025, Byron won at 129.159 mph in a race that went one lap past the scheduled distance. In 2024, he ran 157.178 mph in a race that went to the scheduled 200 laps.

Hendrick Motorsports as an organization has 10 Daytona 500 wins, more than any team in history. Petty Enterprises is second with 9.

Drivers to Watch

Kyle Busch No. 8 Chevrolet
Richard Childress Racing

Best driver rating among active drivers at Daytona (90.3) and best average running position (13.927). Has run 65.4% of his Daytona 500 laps in the top 15. One win, nine top fives, 13 top 10s. The catch: 20 Daytona 500 starts without a win, the most among active drivers.

Joey Logano No. 22 Ford
Team Penske

Second-best average running position at Daytona (14.212) and driver rating of 89.9. Has spent 63.4% of his laps in the top 15. One Daytona 500 win (2015), eight top fives, 11 top 10s in 17 starts. Won the 2024 pole (181.947 mph).

Bubba Wallace No. 23 Toyota
23XI Racing

Best average finish among active drivers at Daytona (14.471). Five top fives, six top 10s. Two runner-up finishes (2018, 2022). Average running position of 17.229 is mid-pack but the finish stats suggest he's consistently there at the end.

Denny Hamlin No. 11 Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing

Three Daytona 500 wins (2016, 2019, 2020), most among active drivers. Leads all active drivers in laps led at Daytona with 496. His 2016 win over Martin Truex Jr. was the closest in race history at 0.010 seconds.

Ryan Blaney No. 12 Ford
Team Penske

Two wins at Daytona (not in the 500), five top fives, nine top 10s. Led the most laps in a single Daytona 500 by an active driver: 118 laps in 2018 before finishing seventh. Two runner-up finishes (2017, 2020).

Austin Cindric No. 2 Ford
Team Penske

Won the 2022 Daytona 500 as a rookie. Second-best average finish among active drivers with more than one start (13.8 in 5 races). Has run 65.9% of his laps in the top 15, the highest percentage among active drivers.

Christopher Bell No. 20 Toyota
Joe Gibbs Racing

Three top fives, three top 10s in six starts. Average finish of 18.500 and driver rating of 81.5. A rising contender on superspeedways.

Chase Elliott No. 9 Chevrolet
Hendrick Motorsports

Three Daytona 500 poles, six top 10s. Became the youngest Daytona 500 pole winner ever at age 20 in 2016. Average running position of 16.215, seventh-best among active drivers.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

Weekend Schedule

Event Day Time (ET) TV
Practice 1 Wed, Feb 11 10:00 AM FS1
Qualifying Wed, Feb 11 8:15 PM FS1
Duel 1 Thu, Feb 12 7:00 PM FS1
Duel 2 Thu, Feb 12 8:45 PM FS1
Practice 2 Fri, Feb 13 5:35 PM FS1
Practice 3 Sat, Feb 14 3:00 PM FS1
Daytona 500 Sun, Feb 15 1:30 PM (2:13 PM) FOX

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Daytona 500 on?

The Daytona 500 airs on FOX on Sunday, February 15, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET, broadcast from Daytona International Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?

The Daytona 500 ran on Sunday, February 15, 2026 with a 1:30 PM ET green flag on FOX.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

NR-Rating Track Rankings
#DriverElo RatingLast Finish
1Chase Elliott
1517
P4
2Daniel Suarez
1497
P13
3Kyle Busch
1496
P15
4Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
1495
P2
5Chris Buescher
1493
P7
6William Byron
1493
P12
7Tyler Reddick
1488
P1
8Alex Bowman
1486
P40
9Ryan Blaney
1485
P27
10Bubba Wallace
1483
P10
NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

# Driver Exp. Finish Win %
1 Tyler Reddick Best in Field 13.6 11.2%
2 Chase Elliott 10.4 11.0%
3 Chris Buescher 13.6 10.4%
4 Ryan Blaney 13.9 9.9%
5 William Byron 13.9 8.9%
6 Daniel Suarez 15.1 7.8%
7 Kyle Busch 15.1 7.0%
8 Alex Bowman 15.1 6.2%
9 Bubba Wallace 16.0 5.7%
10 Brad Keselowski 16.0 5.3%
11 Denny Hamlin 16.0 4.5%
12 Christopher Bell 17.4 3.9%
13 Ross Chastain 17.4 3.8%
14 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 3.3%
15 Casey Mears 18.5 3.2%
16 Erik Jones 18.5 3.1%
17 Kyle Larson 18.5 2.9%
18 Carson Hocevar 19.4 2.8%
19 Jimmie Johnson 18.9 2.7%
20 Michael McDowell 20.0 2.5%
21 Austin Cindric 20.1 1.8%
22 A.J. Allmendinger 20.1 1.7%
23 Joey Logano 20.5 1.4%
24 John Hunter Nemechek 20.5 1.2%
25 Ryan Preece 21.1 1.0%
26 Ty Gibbs 22.9 0.9%
27 Ty Dillon 21.1 0.9%
28 Justin Allgaier 21.1 0.9%
29 Chase Briscoe 21.7 0.9%
30 Zane Smith 22.9 0.9%
31 Todd Gilliland 22.9 0.8%
32 Corey Heim 22.9 0.7%
33 Riley Herbst 23.7 0.7%
34 Austin Dillon 23.4 0.6%
35 Anthony Alfredo 23.7 0.6%
36 Corey LaJoie 23.3 0.5%
37 Shane van Gisbergen 23.4 0.5%
38 Cole Custer 23.4 0.4%
39 Connor Zilisch 23.4 0.4%
40 B.J. McLeod 25.5 0.3%
41 Josh Berry 24.0 0.3%
42 Noah Gragson 24.0 0.3%
43 J.J. Yeley 25.2 0.3%
44 Cody Ware 27.9 0.2%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

Starting Lineup

Grid # Driver
1 8 Kyle Busch
2 19 Chase Briscoe
3 22 Joey Logano
4 9 Chase Elliott
5 12 Ryan Blaney
6 77 Carson Hocevar
7 3 Austin Dillon
8 5 Kyle Larson
9 6 Brad Keselowski
10 71 Michael McDowell
11 42 John Hunter Nemechek
12 20 Christopher Bell
13 97 Shane van Gisbergen
14 21 Josh Berry
15 7 Daniel Suarez
16 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
17 66 Casey Mears
18 34 Todd Gilliland
19 60 Ryan Preece
20 54 Ty Gibbs
21 48 Alex Bowman
22 11 Denny Hamlin
23 41 Cole Custer
24 43 Erik Jones
25 4 Noah Gragson
26 45 Tyler Reddick
27 23 Bubba Wallace
28 35 Riley Herbst
29 67 Corey Heim (i)
30 38 Zane Smith
31 84 Jimmie Johnson
32 88 Connor Zilisch #
33 51 Cody Ware
34 10 Ty Dillon
35 16 A.J. Allmendinger
36 2 Austin Cindric
37 1 Ross Chastain
38 62 Anthony Alfredo (i)
39 24 William Byron
40 17 Chris Buescher
36 Chandler Smith (i)
40 Justin Allgaier (i)
44 J.J. Yeley (i)
78 B.J. McLeod
99 Corey LaJoie
Did Not Qualify: #36 Chandler Smith, #40 Justin Allgaier, #44 J.J. Yeley, #78 B.J. McLeod, #99 Corey LaJoie

Track Type Tendencies

superspeedway

Superspeedway races at Daytona International Speedway are defined by pack racing and drafting. Results are less predictable than any other track type — the field stays tight and late-race wrecks reshape the outcome.

Manufacturer strategy and drafting alliances matter as much as raw speed. Longshot winners are more common here than anywhere on the schedule.

Betting Angles

Overtime Trend

13 of the last 22 Daytona 500s (2003-2025) have finished under overtime conditions. The 2023 race was the longest ever at 212 laps (530 miles), 12 laps beyond the scheduled distance.

Betting the over on total laps has been a winning play historically. Last year's race went 201 laps.

Starting Position and Winning

The pole position has produced the most Daytona 500 winners (9 wins, 13.43% win rate), but the front row overall accounts for just 16 of 67 wins (23.88%).

Starting outside the top 10 isn't a death sentence — 45% of all Daytona 500 victories have come from starting positions 11th or deeper. Matt Kenseth won from 39th in 2009, the deepest a winner has ever started.

Top 10 from the Top 5

Nearly 45% of all Daytona 500 wins have come from a top-5 starting spot. But 82% of winners started in the top 15. Starting outside the top 20 has only produced 7 wins in race history (10.45%).

Lead Changes and Unpredictability

The 2011 Daytona 500 holds the record with 74 lead changes and 22 different leaders. That was the tandem-drafting era. More recently, the race has been somewhat more stable, but superspeedway pack racing still produces more lead changes than any other track type.

Three-Peat Odds Context

No driver has won three straight. Only 13 drivers in history have won multiple Daytona 500s. Among active drivers, only Hamlin (3), Jimmie Johnson (2), and Byron (2) have multiple wins.

The historical probability of any defending champion winning again is roughly 7.5% (5 back-to-backs in 67 races).

Did You Know?

Lee Petty won the first Daytona 500 on February 22, 1959 in a photo finish. Lee Petty and Trevor Bayne (2011) are the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 on their first attempt.

580 total drivers have competed in at least one Daytona 500.

Dave Marcis holds the all-time record for Daytona 500 starts with 33. Jimmie Johnson leads active drivers with 22.

Nine drivers have posted their first career Cup Series win in the Daytona 500, most recently Austin Cindric in 2022.

McDowell had 358 starts before winning the 2021 Daytona 500, the second-most starts before a first win in series history (behind Michael Waltrip's 463 starts before winning in 2001).

Danica Patrick won the only Daytona 500 pole by a female competitor in 2013 (196.434 mph) and holds the best finish by a female driver (8th, also 2013).

Alex Bowman leads active drivers in Daytona 500 poles with 3 (2018, 2021, 2023) and has started on the front row six consecutive times.

The Daytona 500 has gone to overtime 13 times. The 2023 race (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.) had the most overtime laps at 12.

Car No. 43 has won 7 Daytona 500s (all by Richard Petty), the most of any number. No. 24 has 5 wins (Jeff Gordon: 1997, 1999, 2005; William Byron: 2024, 2025).

Fantasy

Dominator Plays
Denny Hamlin 558 laps led
Joey Logano 412 laps led
Brad Keselowski 345 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays
Tyler Reddick 14.63 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks
Bubba Wallace 13.50 avg, 0 wins
Ty Gibbs 14.86 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

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